SpaceX shares have fallen roughly 50% from their post-IPO peak, and Morgan Stanley is warning that a further slide to $100 — a level many investors consider realistic — would mean the market is assigning no value whatsoever to the company’s artificial intelligence business.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas made the case in a note to clients Friday, arguing that bearish sentiment has become disconnected from SpaceX’s underlying fundamentals and that the selloff has created an attractive entry point. SpaceX touched a low of $110.85 this week, 18% below its $135 IPO price, and closed Friday at $115.07.
The company raised a record $86 billion when it went public in mid-June in the largest IPO in history. Shares surged nearly 50% in the first three trading sessions before reversing course as broader investor sentiment toward heavy AI spenders deteriorated. Elevated oil prices tied to U.S.-Iran tensions and a shaky macroeconomic backdrop have compounded the pressure on technology stocks committing hundreds of billions of dollars to AI infrastructure.
The near-term overhang is significant. On August 4, SpaceX is scheduled to hold its first earnings call as a public company. Two days later, on August 6, the first batch of insider lockup shares — roughly 911.5 million shares — becomes eligible for sale, which could roughly double the float and add further pressure if early investors choose to cash out.
Jonas’s $300 price target assigns more than half of SpaceX’s value to its AI segment, which includes the Grok large language model and the Cursor developer tool — both absorbed when SpaceX completed its merger with Elon Musk’s xAI in February 2026. At $100, he calculates, the market would be pricing that entire AI operation at zero or even a negative value, ignoring what Morgan Stanley projects could be roughly $190 billion in AI-related revenue by 2030.
“Most investors we speak with significantly discount Grok and Cursor,” Jonas wrote, noting that many cite high capital requirements, uncertain economics and the significant management attention devoted to the AI business as reasons to assign it little or no value.
Musk separately previewed new Grok models coming shortly, a potential catalyst that Jonas and other bulls say the market is currently ignoring.
Despite the stock’s rough stretch, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish. Nearly 80% of the 33 analysts tracked by Bloomberg covering SpaceX recommend buying the shares, and the average price target of roughly $232 implies the stock would more than double from current levels. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase — the other four banks that led the offering alongside Morgan Stanley — have all issued buy-equivalent ratings.
Jonas himself counts among the most bullish voices on Wall Street on SpaceX, with the third-highest price target among analysts covering the stock. He is a figure well known for moving markets with his calls, having served for years as one of Wall Street’s most prominent Tesla bulls before pivoting last year to cover AI and humanoid robots.