A leading political analyst has revised its forecast for Montana’s Senate race, now favoring Republicans as Democratic Senator Jon Tester has seen a decline in poll numbers.
On Friday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shifted the race from a “toss up” to “leans Republican.” This change comes less than nine weeks before the November election.
The adjustment follows a new AARP poll released Thursday, which shows Republican candidate Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, leading Tester by six points, with Sheehy at 51% and Tester at 45% in a head-to-head matchup. Even in a broader field, Sheehy still led Tester, 49%-41%. Managing editor Kyle Kondik noted that Tester faces significant challenges: “History and recent trends are not in Tester’s favor. He represents a rare partisan outlier in the Senate, holding a seat in a state that the other party won by 16 points in the last presidential election.”
Kondik acknowledged the possibility of ticket-splitting affecting the outcome but pointed out that long-term trends suggest decreasing ticket-splitting.
Jon Tester has been a senator since 2006 and has won re-election twice, despite Montana’s traditionally Republican leanings. His 2018 re-election bid was not affected by a presidential election, which allowed him to avoid potential negative influences from the national Democratic ticket. This year, however, Vice President Kamala Harris will be at the top of the Democratic ticket, while former President Trump, who won Montana in 2016 and 2020, will lead the Republicans.
Tester has not endorsed Harris and skipped the Democratic National Convention last month. Despite efforts to distance himself from Harris and national party politics, his strategy’s effectiveness remains uncertain, especially given past reports indicating that Tester, then leading the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, played a key role in recruiting Harris for the Senate in 2015. Tester also strongly supported Harris when she was selected as Biden’s running mate in 2020, stating on X, “My friend @KamalaHarris is a proven fighter and an excellent pick for Vice President. As VP, I’m confident she will continue to fight for working families across this country. Looking forward to supporting her and @JoeBiden in November.”
Recently, Tester explained his refusal to endorse any presidential candidate, saying, “I’m focused on my race, and folks have wanted to nationalize this race. This isn’t about national politics; this is about Montana.”