A new poll indicates incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke enters the 2026 election cycle with a substantial advantage over the top two potential Democratic challengers, according to survey results released this week.
The poll was conducted by Peak Insights, a Republican public opinion research firm, and surveyed likely general election voters between January 12 and January 15. The results show Zinke leading Democrat Ryan Busse by six points, 47 percent to 41 percent, and widening that margin to 10 points against Democrat Sam Forstag, 48 percent to 38 percent.
Busse is the best-known Democrat tested in the survey, having run unsuccessfully for governor in 2024. His prior statewide campaign gave him relatively high name recognition in Montana’s western congressional district, but the poll suggests that recognition has not yet translated into a support from voters.
Forstag, a Union lobbyist and LGBTQ activist, who announced his candidacy earlier this month, has been endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders.
The survey questioned 400 likely voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent. In both hypothetical matchups, Zinke’s lead exceeded the margin of error, indicating a measurable advantage at this stage of the race.
Zinke, a former Navy SEAL and U.S. Secretary of the Interior, has been elected to Congress four times. In his most recent race in 2024, he defeated Democrat Monica Tranel by nearly eight percentage points.
The poll was funded by Leadership in Action, a political action committee aligned with Republican interests in Montana. The PAC has recently been active in federal races, including running advertising aimed at a potential independent challenger to U.S. Sen. Steve Daines.
While the election remains months away and the Democratic primary field is not yet finalized, the survey provides an early snapshot suggesting Zinke begins the cycle with a clear edge over the Democrats tested.