Donald Trump is aiming for a decisive victory on “Super Tuesday” as 15 states hold Republican contests in the primary season’s biggest voting day. Trump, despite facing numerous criminal charges, has dominated the Republican campaign, leaving Nikki Haley as his lone challenger. With a string of victories in early nominating contests, Trump has narrowed down the field to just two candidates.
Although Trump cannot secure the nomination outright on Tuesday, a strong performance would effectively eliminate any remaining uncertainty. More than one-third of Republican delegates will be up for grabs in Tuesday’s contests, with over 70% of the total needed to secure the nomination.
A win for Trump would pave the way for a rematch with Democratic President Joe Biden in November’s election. Biden is expected to easily secure victories in the Democratic contests on Tuesday. However, there are calls from activists opposed to Biden’s Israel policy for Muslim Americans and progressives to vote “uncommitted” in Minnesota as a form of protest.
Nikki Haley, the former U.N. ambassador under Trump, faces mounting questions about the longevity of her campaign, particularly after losing her home state of South Carolina. Despite pledging to continue until Super Tuesday, Haley’s campaign has not scheduled any public events beyond that.
Polling data from 538 indicates that Trump leads Haley in every Super Tuesday state where data is available. However, Haley’s allies see potential opportunities in states like Virginia, Massachusetts, and Vermont, which have more affluent, college-educated voters who tend to support her candidacy.
One state to watch is Utah, where Trump’s support among the sizable Mormon population is lukewarm.
Trump’s advisers anticipate mathematically eliminating Haley no later than March 19, by which point two-thirds of the states will have voted. Trump is set to begin his first criminal trial in New York shortly after, facing charges related to falsifying business records.
While Haley has failed to slow Trump’s momentum, her challenge has exposed some of his vulnerabilities in a general election. Supporters of Haley believe she stands a better chance against Biden in November, while Trump loyalists dismiss her as a “RINO” (Republican in Name Only).
Tuesday’s elections come on the heels of a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that states cannot remove Trump from their ballots based on a constitutional amendment barring insurrectionists from holding office. This decision, seen as a win for Trump, serves as a reminder of his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, culminating in the Capitol attack on January 6, 2021.
Trump faces both federal and state charges related to election interference, with trials pending, though it remains uncertain whether they will conclude before November’s election. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges and has claimed they are part of a Democratic conspiracy to prevent his return to power.