Survey shows Republican Kurt Alme up 19 points as Bankhead and Bodnar split the opposition vote
A new poll shows Democrats and independents divided between two candidates running against Republican Kurt Alme in Montana’s U.S. Senate race, with the split vote giving Alme a substantial overall lead.
The survey, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies from June 8-11 among 500 likely voters, found Alme leading the general election ballot with 44% support, compared with 25% for Democrat Alani Bankhead and 20% for independent Seth Bodnar. Libertarian Kyle Austin drew 4%, with 7% undecided. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.
Even in the best-case scenario for Democrats — one in which every Bankhead and Bodnar voter consolidated behind a single candidate — that combined total of 45% would only narrowly exceed Alme’s 44%, according to the poll. Alme won 94% of self-identified strong Republicans and 82% of all Republican identifiers, the largest single bloc of the electorate at 48%.
The survey suggests Bankhead, not Bodnar, has emerged as the chief threat to Alme on the left, despite Bodnar’s monthslong effort to position himself as the leading alternative. Bankhead leads Bodnar 25% to 20% overall, with the gap widening considerably among the voters a Democrat would need to win statewide: she leads Bodnar 72% to 21% among self-identified strong Democrats and 59% to 33% among 2024 Kamala Harris voters, according to the poll.
The dynamic has fueled friction between the two campaigns. Bankhead, asked recently about calls for her to drop out in Bodnar’s favor, called him “the last person on the face of this earth I would ever drop out of this race for,” according to media reports.
The poll also found Alme leading in all three of the state’s largest media markets, with his strongest showing in the Billings market, where he led Bankhead 52% to 19%. His advantage widened further among the most reliable voters — those who voted in each of the past three elections — where he led Bankhead by 23 points, compared with a 12-point edge among less consistent voters.
The poll also pointed to broader structural advantages for Republicans in Montana, including a 12-point Republican edge on the generic congressional ballot and a 52% job-approval rating for Gov. Greg Gianforte, in a state that backed President Trump by double digits in 2024.