Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are neck and neck in the race for U.S. Senate, according to a new poll released Tuesday by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.
Paxton led Talarico 43% to 42%, with a 3.5-point margin of error, the survey found, largely aligning with other recent polls, which have reported a competitive race since the general election nominees were solidified last month. The result puts Paxton on a promising trajectory, coming after he trailed Talarico by 8 percentage points in the same pollster’s April survey.
The latest poll queried 1,200 self-reported registered voters from June 5 to 12, around three weeks after the race was set when Paxton, the hardline conservative attorney general, bested U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff election.
According to the poll, the vast majority of Republican voters — 84% — indicated they had moved on from the bitter GOP primary and would support Paxton, a 21-percentage-point shift from the Texas Politics Project’s April poll. Paxton’s 43% support is a 9-point improvement from his 34% showing in April, while Talarico remained stagnant at 42% in both surveys.
In the most recent poll, 5% of Republicans said they would back Talarico, who also had commanding leads among independents and moderates. More than a third of independents said they did not have an opinion about the race so far.
Appealing to Cornyn supporters — traditional Republicans offended by Paxton’s history of scandal — and voters across the political spectrum has formed a central tenet of Talarico’s general election strategy. Paxton’s task will be to minimize potential GOP defections and ensure Republicans turn out without President Donald Trump on the ballot.
In a contest that quickly centered around masculinity and what it means to be a man, Paxton was leading Talarico among male voters by 9 points. Talarico, meanwhile, won voters under the age of 65 and those with a two-year college degree or more, and he led among female voters by 6 points.
Talarico also won Hispanic voters by 14 points, a swingy electorate the Austin Democrat hopes to win back for his party after many surged to the right in recent election cycles. Around two-thirds of Black voters said they would vote for Talarico, short of the proportion who have voted for past Democratic Senate nominees in Texas. Talarico has acknowledged his lackluster support from Black voters and has worked to shore up the key voting coalition that overwhelmingly backed U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the primary.
Meanwhile, Republicans held larger leads in the other statewide races on the ballot, the poll found.
Gov. Greg Abbott led Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, 47% to 40%, in the gubernatorial race, while Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick was beating Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin, 43% to 36%.
The Democrats in the attorney general and comptroller races also hovered in the mid-30s. Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton had a 5-point lead over Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson in the race to succeed Paxton as attorney general, and Don Huffines, a GOP former state senator, led state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt, D-Austin, by 6 points in the comptroller contest.
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Kayla Guo, The Texas Tribune
June 23, 2026