Elon Musk said this week that Starlink’s long-term revenue potential could be far larger than a bullish estimate offered by former Alphabet executive and venture capitalist David Friedberg, as the satellite internet business continues rapid subscriber and revenue growth.
Speaking on the All-In podcast, Friedberg cited Starlink’s performance in making a bullish case for the business, noting the service had reached 12 million subscribers after doubling its user base year over year, with its connectivity business generating $4.29 billion in revenue, up 66% from a year earlier. Friedberg estimated continued growth could eventually push Starlink toward $40 billion in annual revenue and roughly $30 billion in annual free cash flow. “Starlink’s just an unbelievable juggernaut cash machine,” Friedberg said, arguing the business alone could eventually support a valuation approaching $1 trillion.
Musk responded to a video of Friedberg’s comments on X, calling the projections too conservative. “Far more than that,” Musk wrote. He argued that bandwidth demand could surge as AI systems and robots require more data connectivity than humans do, and said that even if the overall communications market merely doubles, he expects Starlink could eventually capture at least 25% of the market outside China — a share he said could translate into more than $500 billion in annual revenue. Musk also said it is “not out of the question” that Starlink could eventually carry more than half of global internet traffic, potentially generating more than $1 trillion in annual revenue.
The exchange came as SpaceX pushes to expand Starlink’s mobile offerings. During the company’s earnings call, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said Starlink Mobile is expected to begin service at the end of 2027 and could attract customers from AT&T, Verizon Communications and T-Mobile US. T-Mobile CEO Srini Gopalan has downplayed the competitive threat, arguing satellite connectivity is likely to complement traditional cellular networks rather than replace them.
Starlink’s direct-to-phone service currently uses about 5 megahertz of partner spectrum, but FCC-approved deals worth $19.6 billion will give SpaceX access to 65 megahertz of EchoStar spectrum. Combined with a fleet of next-generation mobile satellites roughly 10 times larger than its current one, the upgrade could make Starlink’s service 100 times more capable, Shotwell said.
SpaceX shares closed at $133.11 Friday, up 15.83%, and gained another 0.74% to $134.10 in after-hours trading, according to Benzinga Pro. Despite the rally, SpaceX remains rated bearish across short-, medium- and long-term horizons on Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings.