Republican Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in Montana’s U.S. Senate race, according to a new analysis from Decision Desk HQ, as neither Democrat Alani Bankhead nor independent Seth Bodnar has been willing to step aside for the other, leaving the state with a fractured opposition against the GOP front-runner.
In 2026, prominent independent candidates are running in four U.S. Senate races nationwide. In three of them — Idaho, Nebraska and South Dakota — the Democratic nominee withdrew, effectively making the independent candidate the de facto Democratic alternative on the ballot. Montana has followed a different path. Neither Bankhead nor Bodnar has deferred to the other, despite pressure from some Democrats who view Bodnar as the stronger contender in a state President Trump carried by 20 percentage points in 2024. The result is a genuine three-way race, with a Libertarian candidate also on the ballot, in which Alme comfortably leads.
Decision Desk HQ’s new Montana polling average shows Alme at 44%, followed by Bodnar at 26% and Bankhead at 21%. Notably, Bodnar and Bankhead’s combined support totals 47%, suggesting that a single, unified opposition candidate could pose a far more competitive threat to Alme. That dynamic helps explain why some Democrats, including former Montana Sen. Jon Tester, had pushed for the party to coalesce around Bodnar rather than field a separate nominee. The underlying theory holds that an independent candidate stands a better chance of winning over GOP-leaning voters in a red state who might otherwise reject a Democrat outright.
Nebraska’s 2024 Senate race offered some supporting evidence for that strategy: independent Dan Osborn lost by about 7 percentage points even as then-Vice President Kamala Harris lost the state by roughly 21 points in the same election. Osborn is running again in Nebraska’s 2026 Senate race.
Several data points suggest Bodnar would likely fare better in a head-to-head matchup against Alme than the current three-way field allows. Financially, Bodnar has significantly outpaced Bankhead: Through June 30, he had raised $3.2 million compared with Bankhead’s $59,000, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Bodnar’s fundraising also exceeded Alme’s $2.0 million over the same period, though Alme held more cash on hand. Head-to-head polling conducted after the June primary similarly found Bodnar running close to Alme, and in some surveys even leading him, while Bankhead has consistently trailed both candidates.
Despite that dynamic, Alme remains a heavy favorite heading into November. Decision Desk HQ’s forecast gives the Republican roughly a 9-in-10 chance of winning the race. With Bankhead having remained in the contest past the Aug. 10 withdrawal deadline and Bodnar showing no signs of deferring either, Alme appears likely to retain his advantage as the fractured opposition splits the anti-Republican vote.
By: BSB News wire